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Predictability of Asset Returns and the Efficient Market Hypothesis
By Professor M Hashem Pesaran, University of Cambridge and USC
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Abstract
This paper is concerned with empirical and theoretical basis of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). It begins with an overview of the statistical properties of asset returns at different frequencies (daily, weekly and monthly), and considers the evidence on return predictability, risk aversion and market efficiency. The paper then focuses on the theoretical foundation of the EMH, and show that market efficiency could co-exist with heterogeneous beliefs and individual irrationality so long as individual errors are cross-sectionally weakly dependent in the sense. But at times of market euphoria or gloom these individual errors are likely to become cross-sectionally strongly dependent and the collective outcome could display significant departures from market efficiency. Market efficiency could be the norm, but it is likely to be punctuated with episodes of bubbles and crashes. The paper also considers if market inefficiencies can be exploited for profit.
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About the speaker

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Professor of Economics at the University of Cambridge, John Elliott Chair at the University of Southern California, and a Professorial Fellow of Trinity College, Cambridge. Previously he has been the head of the Economic Research Department of the Central Bank of Iran, the Under-Secretary of the Ministry of Education, Iran, Professor of Economics at the University of California at Los Angeles, and a Vice President at the Tudor Investment Corporation. Professor Pesaran is the founding editor of the Journal of Applied Econometrics and has served as a Director on the Board of the Acorn Investment Trust. He has held visiting positions at Harvard University, UCLA, University of Pennsylvania, and the University of Southern California. He has over 130 journal publications in the various areas of econometrics, empirical finance and macroeconomics, and the Iranian economy. He is the author of several books and edited volumes, and is a co-developer of the econometric software package Microfit (version 5 published by Oxford University Press in 2009). He is a Fellow of the Econometric Society, a Fellow of the British Academy, a Fellow of the Journal of Econometrics, and a recipient of the Royal Economic Society Prize (1992), the Best Paper Award, Econometric Reviews (2002-2004), and the Best Paper Award, International Journal of Forecasting (2004-2005). He has also been awarded Honorary Doctorates from the University of Salford and Goethe University, Frankfurt.
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